Supporters of losing political parties express less trust in fellow citizens, study says
Supporters of losing parties express more distrust of their fellow citizens after elections than do supporters of winning parties, a new study has found, with voters who more strongly disliked rival parties showing even greater distrust.
鈥淪ocial trust is one of the most important ingredients in a well-functioning society. This paper suggests that electoral competition 鈥� the mechanism through which democracies are supposed to channel conflict and produce legitimate outcomes 鈥� may itself create challenges for social cohesion, especially as partisan animosity grows,鈥� said Mark Williamson, Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at 91丝瓜视频 and lead author of the study.
The professor added that Canada is one of several countries around the world that have seen a rise in attitudinal polarization over the preceding decade, and that therefore post-election social distrust might continue to increase.
Examined Canadian election data
Researchers from 91丝瓜视频, the University of Toronto, the University of Zurich and Toronto Metropolitan University examined data collected during six national and 11 subnational election campaigns in Canada between 2004 and 2024, which included information on over 30,000 people鈥檚 voting intentions and beliefs about the trustworthiness of their fellow citizens.
鈥淥ur results are suggestive of a mechanism in which elections reveal to voters the prevalence of like-minded co-partisans in the rest of the electorate, which they associate with the prevalence of trustworthy characteristics,鈥� explained Williamson.
For 鈥渁ffectively polarized鈥� voters 鈥� those who strongly like members of their own political party and strongly dislike members of other parties 鈥� the signal perceived from the election outcome might be amplified, because they tend to see a stronger link between a person鈥檚 partisanship and their trustworthiness, he added.
Trust in one鈥檚 fellow citizens
The research builds on prior work showing that partisans of winning and losing parties display different levels of trust in political institutions after elections.
鈥淲e show that a similar dynamic may also apply to a more fundamental pillar of society: namely, people鈥檚 willingness to trust other people they鈥檝e never met before,鈥� said Williamson.
The researchers suggest that the reason the winner-loser gap occurred only after national, and not subnational, elections is that federal elections might be interpreted by voters as saying something about others in the country as a whole, whereas provincial and district contests reflect only a narrower segment of the population.
Williamson鈥檚 next project will investigate how the victory of a politician from a racial or ethnic outgroup influences voters鈥� attitudes toward members of that outgroup, focusing on Wab Kinew鈥檚 election as Manitoba premier in 2023 as a case study.
About the study
鈥溾�� by Mark Williamson (91丝瓜视频), Amber Hye-Yon Lee (Toronto Metropolitan University), Daniel Rubenson (University of Toronto), Iva Srbinovska (University of Zurich), David Sumantry (Toronto Metropolitan University), Jonah Davids (Toronto Metropolitan University), Annika Maulucci (Toronto Metropolitan University) and Kristina Kisin (Toronto Metropolitan University), was published in Electoral Studies.
