Cutting Edge Lectures in Science: Perfect Model: Prediction, Science and Aesthetics by David Orrell (Oxford)
Perfect Model: Prediction, Science and Aesthetics
By David Orrell (Oxford)
Mankind has always wanted to predict the future. We seem to have a
genetic urge to see around the corner, to sense what鈥檚 coming next.
The ancient Greeks built sophisticated models of the cosmos, based
on the ideal of perfect circles, that could be used by astrologers.
Today we rely on mathematical models to forecast the weather, the
spread of diseases, the economy, and much else. Nowhere is
predictive ability more important than in science, where it is
considered the traditional test of a theory鈥檚 success.
This talk takes an overview of the history and the challenges of
prediction, from the oracle at Delphi, right up to the latest
methods being developed in areas such as systems biology and
economics 鈥� and argues that our search for the 鈥減erfect model鈥�
often reveals as much about our sense of aesthetics as it does
about the future. David Orrell is the author of books including
Apollo's Arrow: The Science of Prediction and the
Future of Everything, and Economyths: Ten
Ways Economics Gets It Wrong.