If you have a child who still wets the bed after the age of 5, and if you are a fan of crime dramas, you may be asking yourself some seriously dark questions about your kid鈥檚 future.
Episodic television crime dramas love to serve up outdated, simplistic but sensationalistic models of human psychology. Criminals with weird manifestations of OCD get easily profiled by supernaturally competent, fast-talking, genius-IQ law enforcement officers, who bring the perp to justice in 42 minutes tops. Real life this is not.
One of the flashy bits of pop psychology you are likely to hear about watching one of these shows is the MacDonald triad. It鈥檚 the false idea that wetting the bed after the age of 5, starting fires, and torturing animals are a trinity of signs that predict that a child will become a serial killer. If your child exhibits all three, Mariska Hargitay鈥檚 no-nonsense detective on听Law & Order: SVU听will let you know that you should be very afraid.听(This concept, by the way, should not be confused with the听dark triad, which consists of narcissism, Machiavellianism, and psychopathy, and which is claimed to sometimes be associated with crime.)
Fortunately for us, this triad was less based on facts than on Freud鈥檚 far-fetched ideas. The psychiatrist who birthed it quickly realized it didn鈥檛 quite add up, but it was too late: the lurid concept had bolted out of the barn like a wild horse and was headed straight to television.
From a casual mention to the FBI鈥檚 seal of approval
FBI Special Agent Jennifer Jareau (A.J. Cook): 鈥淔irestarting is the first part of what we used to call the homicidal triad. The other two parts are bedwetting and cruelty to animals.鈥� (Criminal Minds, Season 7, Episode 22, 鈥淧rofiling 101鈥�)
We owe it all to John Marshall MacDonald, a now-deceased forensic psychiatrist at the University of Colorado.
In 1961, MacDonald published a book called听The Murderer and His Victim.听While serial murderers had existed here and there for a long time, the 1960s saw their heinous crimes covered by the American media to a heightened degree. MacDonald鈥檚 book presented numerous crimes whose perpetrators had sometimes wet the bed as children, or started fires compulsively, or tortured small animals. Nothing about a triad so far.
Two years later, MacDonald published听听called 鈥淭he Threat to Kill,鈥� which he also read out at a conference of his peers; and in it, there is a blink-and-you鈥檒l-miss-it statement that is the first mention of this mythical triad.
MacDonald looked at 100 patients admitted to a nearby 鈥減sychopathic hospital鈥� because they had made homicidal threats. He wrote, 鈥淚n the very sadistic patients, the triad of childhood cruelty to animals, firesetting and enuresis was often encountered.鈥� (鈥淓nuresis鈥� is the clinical term for involuntary urination, especially at night pass the age at which it is considered normal.)
How many of these 100 patients were 鈥渧ery sadistic鈥�? How 鈥渙ften鈥� is often? And why did he zero in on three specific signs and nothing else? In Kori Ryan鈥檚 fantastic听听on the origin of this triad, she was unable to find answers to these important questions, as they did not appear to have been documented. Science was not as rigorous back in the 鈥�60s. Preeminent experts could use their clinical experience to formulate theories that became broadly accepted. It was still the era of eminence-based medicine. In MacDonald鈥檚 case, he used far more than his clinical experience: he appears to have been influenced by Freudian psychoanalysis, which was still popular during MacDonald鈥檚 formative years.
Within psychoanalytic circles, wetting the bed had acquired all sorts of symbolic and sexual meanings. It was a sign of hostility, a destructive impulse, but also a form of masturbation. Freud himself听听about how Man鈥檚 mastery over fire could only come after giving up his homosexual-inflected desire to pee on it, thus providing a framework for uniting both bedwetting and firesetting!听
What men like Freud鈥攚ho were enamored with the unconscious and the things we repressed鈥攕eemed to fail to consider are run-of-the-mill explanations for waking up with soiled sheets. Some people sleep too deeply and fail to wake up in time; others overproduce urine as they sleep. We now know that roughly 1 in 5 boys and 1 in 10 girls wet the bed听. Almost all of them thankfully fail to become serial killers. In fact, despite an FBI agent proclaiming on an episode of听Criminal Minds听that 鈥渢here are more serial killers out there than you might think,鈥� there are many fewer than what you may gather from watching television. Based on a very generous definition of who counts as a serial killer, a two-university collaboration has been听: from 2000 to 2009, 133 serial killers were caught and identified in the United States. Total population in the U.S.听? 308 million.
But MacDonald鈥檚 triad was听never about serial killers. It wasn鈥檛 even about killers. It was about patients at a psychiatric hospital who had made听threats to kill someone. There鈥檚 a large gap between making such a serious threat and acting out on it. Yet, MacDonald鈥檚 proposed triad, bolstered by a few imperfect studies (as summarized听), took on a life of its own. It was听听to predict who would become an actual killer, a sexual sadist, a recidivist firesetter, even a serial killer.
In the 1980s, this collection of signs, also known as the homicidal triad and the triad of sociopathy, was adopted by the FBI. If you have watched the cult hit听惭颈苍诲丑耻苍迟别谤听by David Fincher, you are familiar with its fictionalization of how a trio of FBI agents created the 鈥渟cience鈥� of criminal profiling by interviewing serial killers who were rotting in prison. This kind of profiling has come under听; but back then, the FBI stamping this triad with its approval fueled the legitimacy of the concept.
The only problem is that we have known since the 1960s that the triad didn鈥檛 add up, and the biggest name caught espousing doubts was MacDonald himself.
Perpetrating second-rate science
Suspect Harry Baker (Michael Pitt), explaining to his mom why the cops are framing him as a killer: 鈥淭hat gave them firesetting and animal abuse. Throw in enuresis and I fit the triad of sociopathy.鈥�
Detective Olivia Benson (Mariska Hargitay): 鈥淭hree childhood indicators of a future serial killer.鈥� (Law & Order: Special Victims Unit, Season 3, Episode 13, 鈥淧rodigy鈥�)
In 1968, a measly five years after John MacDonald casually mentioned this alleged triad in his paper, he published a book titled听Homicidal Threats. In the middle of it, he revealed the results of a study he conducted, this time including criminals who had not merely threatened violence but had actually been convicted of homicide. He interviewed them, as well as hospital admissions who had threatened to kill someone and,听importantly, a group of patients at a Veterans Administration hospital who had no history of threats or attempted homicide鈥攁 control group. Bedwetting was not mentioned, but questions about starting fires and being cruel toward animals as a child were asked.
MacDonald鈥檚 results were presented in a way that would not pass muster today: there are no numbers, no tables, and his comparisons were sometimes confusingly stated. But with regards to firestarting and animal abuse, he concluded that his study had now thrown 鈥渄oubt on their usefulness as predictors of homicide.鈥�
The studies he had no hand in and that tested his hypothesis between the 1960s and the year 2000 were flawed in such a way that you could easily cherry pick the ones that agreed with you. They often look like attempts at leaning into confirmation bias鈥攂eing told you are right as opposed to checking if perhaps you are wrong鈥攚ith few researchers never bothering to find out how many children exhibit signs of the triad听and turn out OK.听Instead, small numbers of inmates were made to fill out surveys. Self-reports are rampant here; but convicted killers have an image to protect. They may tell you they tortured cats when they were young simply to appear tough. When surveys weren鈥檛 used, researchers picked three or so famous serial killers and read books about them to find out if perhaps their mom complained about changing their sheets a lot when they were 10.
Another problem with these studies is that they frequently fail to define animal abuse. As was pointed out in 2009 by Emily Patterson-Kane and Heather Piper in their听, what exactly counts as animal abuse? Pulling the legs off of a spider? And would non-killers admit to having done it? Would you admit to a researcher of once having tortured a mouse if you鈥檙e now an upstanding lawyer? Do kids who grow up in rural areas have their cruel tendencies satiated by hunting, while urban children get prosecuted for aiming their violent impulses at birds?
I am not here to defend cruelty to animals, which has been recognized as one of many early signs of conduct disorder in children. But contrary to the facile scripts of mass-market television programs, animal abuse is not solely done by psychopathic children with no conscience who will grow up to be next Jeffrey Dahmer. There is a constellation of reasons for it,听: peer pressure, prejudice, curiosity, retaliation against the owner of the animal, sexual gratification, phobia and, yes, sadism. These actions are nauseating, but just because they disgust us we should not assume that their perpetrators are psychopathic killers in the making.
So, was MacDonald right about any of it?听听
Abusive family environments
听FBI Special Agent Elle Greenaway (Lola Glaudini): 鈥淔irestarting is one third of the homicidal triad. An early predictor of adult dissociative criminal behaviour. If we looked in his childhood, we鈥檇 probably find all three: bedwetting鈥� and cruelty to animals.鈥� (Criminal Minds, Season 1, Episode 2, 鈥淐ompulsion鈥�)
When we get to the early 2000s, what little research was being done in this field had moved away from the triad and was looking at each one of its parts individually.
Bedwetting is听听with violence as an adult. As for firestarting and animal cruelty, they are linked to what is called antisocial behaviour, but there is thankfully no guarantee that children who engage in these acts will escalate to more serious forms of violence against humans (a theory that is known as the graduation hypothesis).
In fact, the three components of the MacDonald triad are not good predictors of violence; they are often seen in children who come from abusive families and are trying to cope with major stressors.
We have thus characterized children who are frequently victims of or witnesses to violent behaviour as criminals in the making. Organizations speak of听听between violence to animals and violence to humans. PETA, which is meant to promote animal rights, has in the past broadcast the idea that children who have severely abused animals听听Yet听听on animal cruelty has revealed that a little over a third, 36%, of violent males report having committed at least one act of animal abuse鈥� and 37% of nonviolent males report the same. It鈥檚 disturbing, yes, but if we care about听human violence, animal abuse is simply not a good predictor.
As is so often the case in science, things are more complicated than our gut instinct would like them to be. Back when MacDonald offhandedly typed out his idea that a triad existed, serial killers were mysterious. People used to think they were simply 鈥渃razy.鈥� The consensus was that they were entirely devoid of empathy. I鈥檓 reminded of Dr. Sam Loomis鈥� description of Michael Myers in the 1978 classic听Halloween: 鈥淚 spent eight years trying to reach him, and then another seven trying to keep him locked up because I realized that what was living behind that boy鈥檚 eyes was purely and simply鈥� evil.鈥�
We now know that most serial killers have听.听They divide people into very clear-cut categories, ones they care about and others they can freely victimize. Indeed, studies have reported that some people will say they have harmed cats but that听. Even at the darkest, most revolting end of the humanity spectrum, there is complexity.
The MacDonald triad was never real; yet it lives on in popcorn entertainment. I suspect that TV writers don鈥檛 keep track of the peer-reviewed literature and instead consume hard-hitting, sensational books written by grizzled investigators who have 鈥渁 theory,鈥� as well as pluck ideas out of other television crime dramas.
Basically, don鈥檛 get your science from Hollywood actors pretending to be steel-jawed, all-knowing FBI agents. Your bedwetting nine-year-old may need a visit to the paediatrician, not to the local prison.
Take-home message:
- The MacDonald triad, also called the homicidal triad, refers to wetting the bed past the age of 5, starting fires, and torturing animals, and people have claimed that it predicts who will threaten to kill a person when they鈥檙e older; who will actually kill someone; or even who will become a serial killer.
- The triad was named by a forensic psychiatrist, John MacDonald, who never explained how he came to lump these three things together.
- We now know that bedwetting past the age of 5 is not a predictor of future violence, and that firestarting and animal cruelty can be linked to antisocial behaviour but are not necessarily predictors of future violence. In fact, many children who exhibit the triad have experienced or witnessed abuse.
